Monday, 21 December 2009

How the CCFs tell the truth – but lie at the same time!

Imagine for a moment you picked up your newspaper and read the following:

CARIBBEAN ICE DOUBLES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR!!!!

Reports are coming in from the Captain of the SS Caribbean Cruiser that ice in the usually warm waters has doubled in less than one hour. Several ships officers noticed this phenomenon, and it was entered into the ships log. The Captain, speaking to his head office in London, said "In forty years at sea I have never seen anything like this before"

There is a consensus of scientific opinion that this is caused by Global warming. A spokesman said "It is quite possible that large icebergs breaking off from the Antarctic ice shelf are finding their way to the usually warm waters of the Caribbean. Scientists have long forecast that the effects of man- made global warming will have catastrophic effects worldwide.

(The article then continues repeating all the dire warnings we have read so many times)

Now I bet that the majority of people reading that will throw up their hands in horror at this latest 'proof' of AGW (man-made global warming). I'll now show you how the CCF's can publish stories like the above which whilst telling the truth, are in fact lies. By that I mean lead the gullible, (and there are a lot of them) to come to a totally wrong conclusion.

Imagine yourself cruising on the good ship SS Caribbean Cruiser. You stand at the guardrail sipping a cool drink and watching the heavens. In an idle moment you take an ice cube from your glass and drop it over the side, moments later you do it again. Now factually the ice in the Caribbean has doubled in less than an hour, but notice how the story doesn't dwell on the truth part of the story, but hurries on to regale you with the usual AGW nonsense. How do they do this?

I call it "fudging the baseline". The baseline is the actual fact part, but they are very clever not to give you any further details. For example a couple of years ago a paper ran with the headline that the incidence of malaria in the UK had tripled in the previous eight months. They were very careful however not to give you the baseline, which were the actual figures. The story was eventually exposed. There was one case of malaria in the UK, but two holiday makers returning from a brief break in The Gambia had not continued taking their anti malaria tablets on returning to the UK and fell ill with the disease. Factually the story was correct, there was one person with malaria, now there were three, but the impression that is left with you is that a disease normally associated with warmer climes ( though in fact malaria is not a tropical disease) is running riot in the UK, an impression that is far from the truth.

So whenever you see a story which is strangely vague about actual figures, be afraid, be very afraid. Such stories often use phrases like, doubled, percentage rise or fall, or since records began.

For example in September 2007 the BBC ran with a story "Northwest Passage (a sea route across the top of Canada normally not navigable because of ice) open for the first time in recorded history". Now this sounds very dramatic and surely proof of AGW. However if you notice they did not actually tell you how long recorded history was. Most of us facing that phrase might imagine a long period, possibly hundreds of years, which is exactly what the CCF's want you to believe. In fact in this case "recorded history" actually meant from 1978 when satellite surveillance made it possible.

Over the years the fabled North West passage has been free of ice on many occasions. Chinese maps of the 14th century show it navigable. The famous Arctic and Antarctic explorer Roald Amundsen, the chap who beat Scott to the South Pole, sailed a ship through it in 1903. The account of his voyage is contained in his diaries. The RCMP, the Mounties, ketch St Roch, made the trip several times between 1940 and 1944.

But the story doesn't end there. In September 2000 the St Roch II, the successor to the original patrol boat did the same trip in just three weeks. Hold on, some of you are saying, didn't the September 2007 story say that the trip had not been done since 1978? So were the details of the 2000 trip kept secret? Well no the Guardian had the story and there was a website giving the full details of the trip. So why wasn't it mentioned? Because the CCF's lied. They wanted a headline to show global warming so they told a lie; of course they also forgot to mention that in 2008 the Northwest Passage was once again frozen over. Of course they didn't bother to mention that as people might say "Whatever happened to this global warming?"

So be wary when reading stories or listening to people who fudge the baseline. If someone tells you this is the coldest/warmest since records began, ask them when that was. If someone tells you the ice has doubled/decreased ask from what amount? Put them on the spot; force them to tell the truth – the real truth!

Details of St Roch trip: http://www.vancouvermaritimemuseum.com/page122.htm

Details of St Roch II trip: http://www.athropolis.com/news/st-roch.htm

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